Daniil Medvedev celebrates after beating Novak Djokovic Friday in Dubei. He’ll meet compatriot Andrey Rublev in Saturday’s singles final (Photo: Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship)
- Medvedev vs Rublev is an all-Russian matchup in the Dubai Tennis Championships singles final
- The match will be played Saturday at 10 am ET with Medvedev the -440 favorite in the Medvedev vs Rublev odds
- Rublev won their last two meetings, but Medvedev is a strong favorite; we break down our top Medvedev vs Rublev prediction here
If Novak Djokovic isn’t going to be in a tournament’s final, Medvedev vs Rublev is a pretty good outcome, all things considered. Read on for our best bets in this Medvedev vs Rublev prediction.
Medvedev vs Rublev Odds
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||-4.5 (-110)||-440||O 21.5 (-110)|
| Andrey Rublev (RUS)||+4.5 (-122)||+330||U 21.5 (-120)|
Medvedev vs Rublev has Medvedev as a strong favorite at -440 odds. Rublev, who won their last two matches, is the underdog at +330 odds. Total games odds are closest at 21.5 games. Medvedev vs Rublev odds as of March 3 at FanDuel.
Medvedev On a 13-match Win Streak
The 27-year-old Russian clearly shook off his disappointment after a shocking third-round, straight-sets defeat at the hands of young American Sebastian Korda at the Australian Open.
Three weeks later in Rotterdam, he began a win streak that currently stands at 13 matches.
Medvedev won Rotterdam, then he went to Doha and won that as well. In those 13 matches, he has lost just two sets.
Straight-Sets Win Over Djokovic
On Friday, Medvedev played like an impenetrable wall against world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, who was playing his first tournament since winning the Australian Open and healing a hamstring injury.
Djokovic’s plan clearly was to be super-aggressive; he came to net 27 times. But the official statistics can’t be right; they say he made just 14 unforced errors. The reality watching it was that it felt he made many, many more than that. An uncharacteristic amount, but some of that was down to the fact that Medvedev just returned every single ball and forced Djokovic into going for more than he might have liked on a night that was uncharacteristically humid in the desert.
In the end, Medvedev won just two more points than Djokovic. But it didn’t feel that close.
Medvedev vs Rublev Head-to-Head
|27 (Feb. 11, 1996)||Age||25 (Oct. 20, 1997)|
|Moscow, Russia||Birthplace||Moscow, Russia|
|17||Career ATP Singles Titles||12|
|No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021)|
|No. 7||Current Ranking||No. 6|
|$27,415,119||Career Prize Money||$15,457,175|
|18-2||2022 Won/Loss Record||9-5|
The difference came down to break-point opportunities; Djokovic only earned one during the 6-4, 6-4 defeat. He converted it, but Medvedev converted three of the four break-point opportunities he had.
Rublev With Big Win Over Zverev
For Andrey Rublev, who saved five match points in a match earlier in the week, the win over Alexander Zverev in Friday’s semifinals was a breakthrough.
In five previous matches against his longtime friend, the Russian had never even taken a set.
But on Friday, even if Zverev is not back to his best after an awful ankle injury last year, and surgery, Rublev broke the duck on that rivalry. He won this one in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6 (9). It could easily have gone to a decider. But Rublev got through.
That will give him some confidence going into a match against an opponent he has pulled off comeback wins against the last two times they have met.
Medvedev vs Rublev Match History
|2022||ATP Finals (RR)||Indoor Hard||6-7 (7), 6-3, 7-6 (7)||Rublev|
|2021||Cincinnati Masters (SF)||Outdoor Hard||2-6, 6-3, 6-3||Rublev|
|2021||Australian Open (QF)||Outdoor Hard||7-5, 6-3, 6-2||Medvedev|
|2020||US Open (QF)||Outdoor Hard||7-6 (6), 6-3, 7-6 (5)||Medvedev|
|2019||St. Petersburg (QF)||Indoor Hard||6-4, 7-5||Medvedev|
|2019||Cincinnati Masters (QF)||Outdoor Hard||6-2, 6-3||Medvedev|
Their match at the ATP Finals couldn’t have been closer. But the 2022 version of Medvedev was a shadow of his 2021 self.
Rublev’s problem on Saturday wll be that the current version of Medvedev looks very much vintage.
MLS Predictions, Odds Week 2: Austin vs Montreal, Miami vs Philadelphia & More
Medvedev vs Rublev Prediction
If the humidity is at the same level as it was on Friday, that will probably favor the (slightly) smaller man, Rublev.
Their previous history would indicate that the first set will be very close (over 10.5 games in the first set has +250 odds).
And it’s also likely to be long; the odds for over 24.5 total games sit at +152 in the Medvedev vs Rublev odds.
But as well as Rublev might play, he won’t be the better player on the court. And that’s why we’re calling for a Medvedev victory in our Medvedev vs Rublev prediciton.
Medvedev vs Rublev Picks: Medvedev wins; both players win a Set (+260)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.