The 2023 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells will be one of the most competitive and open fields on the men’s calendar this year. It is the first Masters 1000 tournament of the season and a host of big names will feature despite the absence of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. In this article, we shall delve into the list of favorites, players to watch, and dark horses to win the most prestigious ATP tournament outside the four Slams.
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ATP Indian Wells Masters 2023 Betting Tips & Predictions
Favorites to Win the 2023 Indian Wells Masters
On the men’s side of things, World No. 6 Daniil Medvedev is the red-hot favorite to win the 2023 Indian Wells Masters. He is priced at 3/2 (with bet365) to win the tournament, almost as low as Novak Djokovic tends to be in the outright markets before tournaments.
That is because Djokovic won’t play in the Indian Wells tournament. Since 2019, the Serbian star hasn’t traveled to the desert.
Last season he was unable to enter the United States due to his vaccination status against Covid-19 and his request to seek special permission this year was rejected by US authorities. He has since pulled out from the draw which will be released in a few hours.
Medvedev has won three successive ATP tournaments for the first time in his career, and is clearly a transformed man in 2023.
Last year’s finalist Rafael Nadal will not make the trip to North America. Since his shocking loss to Mackenzie McDonald, the 22-time Grand Slam winner has spent time in the treatment room. He is nursing a leg injury and is unlikely to return to the courts until the clay-court swing commences in early April.
Nadal will therefore relinquish the 600 points he earned last season at this event and will drop out of the world’s top 10 for the first time in over 15 years (over 900 weeks) – a record on the ATP Tour.
That opens up the door for the likes of Carlos Alcaraz who is the third favorite in the betting markets.
Alcaraz is 7/1 (with bet365) to win at the desert although doubts linger on his fitness after pulling out from Acapulco due to injury. Alcaraz has a chance to regain top spot if wins the tournament.
It puts Stefanos Tsitsipas 11/2 (bet365) as the second favorite behind Medvedev. Tsitsipas reached his second Grand Slam final in January at the Australian Open, although he couldn’t quite hit his stride in February. The Greek will play for the first time since his second-round loss to Jannik Sinner in Rotterdam.
Provided the second seed is not perturbed by the shoulder injury that forced him to skip Acapulco, we like his chances of hoisting the trophy.
- Men’s Singles Winner Prediction: Daniil Medvedev: 3/2 (bet365)
- Men’s Singles Winner Dark Horse Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas: 11/2 (bet365)
Men’s Singles: Players to Watch at Indian Wells
Quite a few names stand out here. Jannik Sinner has top-10 aspirations. On the evidence of his sterling run of form in 2023, he could even break the top five at this rate. He has been to the quarterfinals or better in three of the four tournaments he has played this year and won his eighth career title in Montpellier last month.
If the top guns stumble, Sinner at 10/1, looks a like steal to win his first Masters at the Californian desert. We might also get feasible odds on Sinner to make at least the semifinal once the draw is out.
Taylor Fritz is the defending champion. He recently rose to a career-high No. 5, becoming the first American man to enter the world’s top 5 since Andy Roddick. Fritz is also priced at 10/1 to retain his crown, but he is running on fumes right now after a draining week in Acapulco.
To Win the tournament: Jannik Sinner: 10/1 (bet365)
Men’s Singles: Dark Horses to Reach Second Week at Indian Wells
Some players who have won ATP tournaments or been to a final in the first two months of the season will be expected to carry that momentum to the North American hard-court swing.
Former world No. 1 Andy Murray has had an extraordinary and rollercoaster two months. Murray has won six matches in deciding sets, with three of them from match points down. He sensationally reached the third round of the Australian Open against all the odds – playing in the longest tennis match of his career.
Murray recently made an ATP final in Doha as a wild card, losing to in-form Daniil Medvedev. He was shrewd in his schedule and elected to pull out from Dubai last week. He could make some serious noise in the desert despite having not won there during his peak years.
Borna Coric is a former semifinalist and recently returned to form in Dubai. The Croatian star won a maiden Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati over six months ago and is a staggering 70/1 to add to his titles collection.
Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz is a perennial danger in these conditions. Hurkacz won the Miami Open a few seasons ago, and cannot be counted out to make the second week and potentially reach the business end of the tournament.
- To Win his Quarter: Andy Murray: (bet365)
- To Win his Quarter: Borna Coric: (bet365)
- To Win the Tournament: Hubert Hurkacz: 33/1 (bet365)