We said: Moldova 2-0 Malta
Malta struggle in the final third and start off slowly, having scored just one first-half goal in their last 22 outings, and they could find it tough against a Moldova side which should be full of confidence after their results over the past 12 months.
The wheels came off slightly for the hosts after they missed out on Euro 2024, but being back in competitive action should see them raise their game as favourites to win the group.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Moldova win with a probability of 65.78%. A draw has a probability of 19.4% and a win for Malta has a probability of 14.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win is 2-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.86%) and 1-0 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.1%), while for a Malta win it is 1-2 (4.2%).
