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Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur Odds & Prediction – Mexican Open Final

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Tommy Paul following through on a forehand hit during a tennis match.

Jan 27, 2023; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Tommy Paul of the United States hits a shot against Novak Djokovic of Serbia on day twelve of the 2023 Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Mexican Open final will be played Saturday  night
  • American Tommy Paul will go up against Australian Alex de Minaur
  • Continue below for Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur odds and our best bet

The Mexican Open final is here and will be played later tonight. Tommy Paul and Alex de Minaur are set to take the court around 10 pm ET. We have your Paul vs de Minaur prediction for the final here.

Both men are coming off strong three set wins that saw them upset their higher seeded opponents. The two haven’t faced each other yet this year, but enter the match having gone head-to-head three times last year.

Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[7] Tommy Paul +1.5 (-114) +112 Ov 22.5 (-118)
[8] Alex de Minaur -1.5 (-114) -136 Un 22.5 (-112)

The moneyline heading into this match is extremely close in the Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur odds. De Minaur is the slight favorite at -136, but Paul is right there with +112. Continue below for a breakdown of how each player has done in the tournament, as well as a best bet prediction.

Odds as of March 4th at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to bet on the match.

Paul Reaches Biggest Career Final

2023 has continue to prove to be good to the 25-year old American, as he once again has had an incredible showing this week.

It was an All-American semifinal as Paul went up against friend and fellow countryman Taylor Fritz on Friday night. It took almost three and a half hours, but Paul managed to come out on top with a 6-3, 6-7(2), 7-6(2) win.

This match really looked like it could go either way many times, and Fritz proved to be Paul’s toughest opponent of the tournament to date. Prior to his semifinal match, Paul took down every opponent with ease.

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De Minaur Defeats Holger Rune

It was smooth sailing for de Minaur through the first few rounds of the Mexican Open. The Australian took down all three of his opponents in straight sets, while only losing eight games over the course of those three matches.

He then found himself up against fourth seed Rune, and lost the first set of the match. From there he had to figure out a way to piece together a comeback to earn a spot in the final. His serve was not working for him, as he recorded three aces with 10 double faults. In a tight match, that’s just giving away points.

But the 24-year old managed to outplay his opponent towards the end of the match to win 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 in just under three hours. With the win, he booked a spot in his 11th ATP Tour final.

First Meeting of 2023

Paul and de Minaur have faced each other a total of three times before. All three previous matches came last year in 2022. De Minaur won all of them to lead the head-to-head 3-0.

The two have played each other on a variety of court surfaces. But their first meeting came on an outdoor hard court, just like the Mexican Open match will be, and de Minaur won in straight sets.

Paul vs de Minaur Head-to-Head Stats

23 ATP Standing 22
25 Age 24
1 Career Titles 6
98/81 Career W/L 163/112
0 YTD Titles 0
8/3 YTD W/L 7/4
0 Head-to-Head Wins 3

Paul vs de Minaur Prediction

These two play similarly. They are strong on the baseline and usually like to take care of their opponents from there. They’re strong, aggressive players, who enjoy being on offense.

It’s hard to deny the level of play Paul has been producing this year. After a breakout performance at the Australian Open this year, Paul has shown that he’s here the stay. The only thing standing in his way of his first title this year is de Minaur, who is also having a great year himself.

So, where’s the best bet heading into this match? Seeing that it looks like it could go either way, and both players have a legitimate opportunity to win the title, lets look towards how many sets it will take to win in our Paul vs de Minaur prediction.

Paul vs de Minaur Picks: Over 2.5 sets (+116)

Hayley Graham

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