Monday Best Bets, Sunday Recaps
Sunday was another busy sports betting here in the Tuley’s Take home office, where I stayed hunkered down as the Las Vegas valley was overrun with tourists all weekend long.
There are so many college basketball teams in town for conference tournaments (and all their coaches and support staff as well as all their fans), plus it was also NASCAR Weekend with tens of thousands of fans making the trek from the Strip to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway in my end of town. In addition, there was also the big UFC card on Saturday night and “Big League Weekend” out at Las Vegas Ballpark in Summerlin with the A’s playing the Reds (as speculation builds about the A’s following the Raiders in moving here from Oakland).
William Byron won the Pennzoil 400 (we still call it the Las Vegas 400 as it seems to change its sponsorship name every couple of years) at 12-1 and it wasn’t even the biggest price of the day as Kurt Kitayama won the PGA’s Arnold Palmer Invitational for his first Tour victory at 300-1 (Circa Sports) in a very competitive field.
As for my personal bets, I had a rough weekend as I lost my posted Best Bet on Sunday with the Wizards +4 vs. the Bucks. They were tied late but unable to hold on for the cover as they lost 117-111. I say lost “posted” bet as they pushed vs. the closing line of +6 at most books, so hopefully followers were able to get a refund (and maybe some even won as BetMGM had Wizards +6.5 -115 a few hours before tipoff, though I missed that myself). Anyway, it was a losing day overall as the San Antonio Brahmas +4 also came up short (literally with a late goal-line stand by the Houston Roughnecks in a 22-13 victory) and I also lost my NASCAR bets on Kyle Busch (mid-pack most of the race), Kevin Harvick (made a late run into contention) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (never in the running).
We ended our day like we usually do on Sundays with our weekly VSiN appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (moved up an hour to 11:15 p.m. PT/8:15 p.m. PT, or 15 minutes into the archived version) as we recapped the weekend’s betting action and made NHL plays for Monday, plus an early XFL Week 4 play. Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s action in the major team sports and then give those plays for Monday, plus a Best Bet in college basketball as our attention turns more to the conference tournaments this week (though we went 5-1 ATS with CBB plays last week with a 1-1 split in Lipscomb games, covers by West Virginia and Auburn in late regular-season games, plus Indiana State +3.5 vs. Bradley and an Under in the Missouri Valley tourney).
NBA: Faves went 6-4 SU Sunday but dogs led 5-4-1 ATS. The push was in the Bucks (-6) 117-111 win at the Wizards. The Grizzlies (+7.5) also covered in a 135-129 loss at the Clippers. The upsets were highlighted by the Lakers (+5 vs. Warriors in Stephen Curry’s return) and Knicks (+6.5 in 2OT win at Celtics). Home/road teams split 5-5 SU, but road teams led 5-4-1 ATS. Overs led 8-2.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 625-330 SU with 15 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 471-461-23 (50.5%). Home teams still lead 573-397 SU and 495-454-21 ATS (52.2%). In totals wagering, Overs improved their slim lead to 484-472-14 (50.6%).
CBB: No. 1 Houston held off Memphis 67-65, but didn’t cover; Penn State (-4) beat No. 21 Maryland 65-64, but it was not an upset (and the NIttany Lions didn’t cover). No. 5 Purdue (-6.5) beat Illinois 76-71 and No. 15 Indiana (-3.5) beat Michigan 75-73 in OT, but both also failed to cover.
NHL: Faves went 4-1 with lone upset by the Kraken (+148 in 3-2 OT win at Avalanche). The Hurricanes (-166), Golden Knights (-280), Flyers (-130) and Devils (-360) won as chalk. Home teams went 3-2. Over/Unders split 2-2-1 with the push in the Hurricanes’ 6-0 win vs. Lightning with a betting total of 6 goals.
XFL: Houston Roughnecks beat San Antonio Brahmas 22-13 to wrap up Week 3 on Sunday night (game stayed Under the betting total of 36 points. Earlier Sunday, the DC Defenders (-3) covered in their 34-28 win vs. St. Louis Battlehawks (Over 37) and the Arlington Renegades (-8) beat Orlando Guardians 10-9, but didn’t cover (Under 37).
More XFL: Faves swept 3-0 SU Sunday, but 2-1 ATS with the Renegades’ non-cover. Faves went 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in Week 3 to improve to 9-3 SU and 6-5-1 ATS overall. Home teams went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS Sunday, finished 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in Week 3 and now lead 7-5 SU overall; however, road teams lead 6-5-1 ATS. Unders went 2-1 Sunday, finished 2-2 in Week 3 and are back to. 500 overall at 6-6.
College basketball Best Bet
San Francisco +15 vs. Gonzaga: The Dons are 20-13 but not even considered on the NCAA Bubble, so they need to win the West Coast tourney here in Las Vegas. We’re not expecting them to upset Gonzaga on Monday night (though it would be nice at +750), but we expect them to put up a fight and cover this big number. We realize the Zags won the last meeting by 18 points, but the earlier meeting was just a 2-point game. Gonzaga, which is still a lock for the NCAA and doesn’t need “style points,” isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing and is just 12-17-1 ATS this season, so the Bulldogs haven’t been consistent in covering big spreads like this.
NHL Best Bets
Jets -1.5 +110 vs. Sharks: I first gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night. It’s a bit of a “swagger play” on the Jets as they snapped a 5-game losing streak in a 7-5 win vs. the Oilers on Saturday night. It’s also a fade of the Sharks who are on a 5-game skid of their own. We’re obviously not going to lay -220 on the straight money line, but we’ll turn them into a dog on the puck line at +110. The Jets are averaging 5 goals a game in their last three games, so we’re counting on them to outscore the Sharks from the start; if not, there’s also the possibility to get the cover with an empty-net goal.
Oilers-Sabres 1P Over 1.5 -190 / Predators-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -140 (parlay pays +162): These parlays haven’t been as successful lately, so we’re hoping to fare better on them by being more selective. The Sabres are the No. 3 1P Over team (all betting stats from “Follow the Money” Army member @PSUOtto on Twitter) at 40-20 and they combine with the Oilers to hit at 61%. In the second leg, the Canucks are still the No. 1 1P Over team at 46-16 and combine with the Predators to go 79-46 (63.2%).
XFL Week 4 Best Bet
San Antonio Brahmas +3 at Seattle Sea Dragons: As mentioned above, San Antonio let us down on Sunday night, but that was against the league’s top team in Houston and now the Brahmas get a step down in class against Seattle, which picked up its first victory against a winless Vegas team (and needed a spectacular play from Josh Gordon or they’d be 0-3). Circa opened this line Sunday night and I actually think the wrong team is favored. Despite a 1-2 record, San Antonio is tied for No. 2 in scoring defense at 17.3 points a game while Seattle allows the third-worst at 22.7.